I’m not sure it’s worth commenting in much detail on Rumsfeld’s warnings to Iran not to interfere with Iraq, and the utter irony of such a statement. It probably wouldn’t make any difference to point out to Donald that his troops accidentally bombed Iran during the recent conflict. Or that Iran is the only shi’ite regime in the area and so whether they like it or not, the shi’ite majority in Iraq will feel some affinity with their neighbours.

He’s probably forgotten that Iran has every right to be wary about the security of its Iraqi border. You’d think that Rumsfeld’s bank balance would remind him of the mass slaughter he encouraged in the first half of the 1980s. It sadly seems too much to expect his conscience to do the reminding.

The time has surely come for someone to ask whether the Bush administration has any interest in the regional security they spout about so much. Regional stability would surely require discussion with neighbouring powers rather than accusations, exploration of the different ethnic groupings and their allegiances, and some measure of give alongside the take. With the streets of Baghdad reportedly more divided every day, and extremist Islamic groups increasingly vocal perhaps neighbouring regimes could be a source of much needed advice?

[the Guardian's Iran coverage is drawn together at this location and is well worth reading]

So the talk is back to Iran. Bush and his junta are meeting in DC amidst mutterings of ‘regime change’ and sadly they still haven’t realised it begins at home. Nor, it would seem, do they have any understanding whatsoever of the situation in Iran.

While sitting in my uncle and aunt’s apartment in Tehran I remember getting quite a chuckle from reports that Bush had been saying he supported “the voices on the streets of Iran”. You couldn’t help but laugh. The previous story had been of the massive anti-Bush rally in the city earlier that day. Certainly the news media can manipulate such images and it’s difficult to believe that they didn’t realise the power of putting those two stories in such close proximity. But the point was neatly made. Bush is oblivious to the voices on the streets.

The Iranian government is a complicated creature. There is much frustration amongst the people that the pro-reform parliament is being frustrated by the regular use of veto on the part of the self-appointed Council of Guardians, which has effectively blocked the reforms the parliament was elected to make. Recent reports suggest that the relatively relaxed approach to dress codes which we experienced last year is being replaced by harder lines this summer.

Conservative crackdowns are not unusual in Iran, but they are often the response to a mixture of internal and external influences. In this case, it’s not difficult to come away with the impression that the conservative hand is strengthened by the attitude of certain external aggressors who fail to acknowledge that the Iranian regime is not a monolith.

Foreign regimes wanting to influence what happens in Iran would do well to learn the arts of subtlety and analysis.